Climate Change and Flood Risk
How climate change is increasing flood risk in England and what it means for the future.
Last updated: 2026-03-27
Climate Change and Flooding
How Climate Change Increases Flood Risk
- More intense rainfall: A warmer atmosphere holds more moisture
- Sea level rise: Global sea levels rising about 3.5mm per year
- Changing weather patterns: More frequent and intense storms
- Wetter winters: Climate projections show significantly wetter winters for England
- Drier summers but more intense storms: Summer rainfall may decrease overall but come in more intense bursts
UK Climate Projections (UKCP18)
By 2070:
- Winter rainfall could increase by 10-35%
- Sea levels could rise by 20-80cm
- Summer storms could become 10-20% more intense
- Peak river flows could increase by 25-105%
EA Climate Change Allowances
The EA requires planners and developers to account for climate change:
- River flows: +35% for most developments
- Rainfall intensity: +40% for residential developments
- Sea level rise: Up to 1.21m by 2100
What This Means
- Properties currently at low risk may become medium or high risk
- Existing flood defences may become inadequate
- More properties will need flood resilience measures
- Insurance costs will likely increase in some areas
Adaptation Strategies
- Invest in natural flood management (rewilding, tree planting, peat restoration)
- Improve urban drainage through SuDS
- Create more floodplain storage
- Build back better after flood events
- Plan long-term managed retreat from some coastlines